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GBO 4 - Scenarios

 Global Bioidiversity Outlook 4, like previous editions of the report, will contain information related to biodiversity scenarios. The scenario information presented in GBO-4 will, as far as possible, build on the scenario information presented in GBO-3, and consist of a combination of reviewing existing models and scenarios and the development of new (combinations of) models where necessary.

The scenario work for GBO 4 is being conducted by a consortium composed of DIVERSITAS, UNEP-WCMC, PBL-Netherlands and the University of British Colombia Fisheries Centre. The work will focus on providing information related to three questions:
  1. What actions need to be taken to achieve the 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets?
  2. How do the Aichi Biodiversity Targets and progress towards them position us to realize the 2050 Vision of the Strategic Plan?
  3. How does implementation of the Strategic Plan and progress towards the Aichi Targets contribute to the 2015 targets of the Millennium Development Goals and, in the longer term, to the Goals themselves?

In providing this information the consortium will:
  1. Undertake analysis that focus on scenarios of change in biodiversity and ecosystem services over relatively short time scales (ca. 2020)
  2. Undertake analysis that focus on scenarios of change in biodiversity and ecosystem services over the next several decades (ca. 2050-2100) at regional to global spatial scales. This activity would specifically focus on the CBD vision for 2050: “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people.”
  3. Convene a small group of international experts to provide expert opinion on the relationships between the Aichi Targets and selected Millennium Development Goals, to the extent possible, based on conclusions drawn from published scenarios and modeling research.