Decision XIV/2 paragraph 3


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Scenarios for the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity
The Conference of the Parties

paragraph 1

1.Welcomes the conclusions of the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice regarding scenarios for the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity contained the annex to the present decision, and takes note of the information contained in the notes by the Executive Secretary and supporting information documents,  and of the Assessment Report on Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services,  noting their relevance to the discussions on the long-term strategic directions to the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity, approaches to living in harmony with nature and the process of developing a post-2020 global biodiversity framework;

paragraph 2

2.Invites the scientific and other relevant communities working on scenarios and related assessments to take into account the following issues which are relevant to the development of the post-2020 global biodiversity framework:

paragraph 2 item (a)

(a)The broad range of underlying drivers and systemic and structural issues related to biodiversity loss;

paragraph 2 item (b)

(b)Combinations of policy approaches at multiple scales and under different scenarios;

paragraph 2 item (c)

(c)The identification of potential synergies, trade-offs and limitations related to biodiversity that should be considered in order to identify effective policies and measures to enable the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals;

paragraph 2 item (d)

(d)The contributions of the collective action of indigenous peoples and local communities in the conservation of biological diversity and the sustainable use of its components;

paragraph 2 item (e)

(e)The consequences of alternative scenarios for the customary sustainable use of biodiversity by indigenous peoples and local communities;

paragraph 2 item (f)

(f)Scenario analyses on financing the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and the attainment of the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity, taking into account Article 20 of the Convention;

paragraph 2 item (g)

(g)Scenario analyses on the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources in accordance with the Convention and the Nagoya Protocol, including monetary and non-monetary benefits arising from their non-commercial and commercial utilization, and the potential of benefit-sharing to promote the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity;

paragraph 2 item (h)

(h)A gender perspective in the development, implementation and monitoring of the post-2020 global biodiversity framework;

paragraph 2 item (i)

(i)The potential positive and negative impacts of productive sectors on biodiversity, such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries;

paragraph 2 item (j)

(j)Technology developments, such as advances in data analytics, digital sequence information on genetic resources, new kinds of living modified organisms and synthetic biology, and their potential positive or negative impacts on the achievement of the three objectives of the Convention as well as on the lifestyles and traditional knowledge of indigenous peoples and local communities;

paragraph 2 item (k)

(k)The importance of increasing awareness about the multiple values of biodiversity and the consequences of biodiversity loss through enhanced communication;

paragraph 2 item (l)

(l)How scenarios and related assessments could inform the identification of short- and medium-term milestones in pursuit of the long-term goal;
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paragraph 3

3.Requests the Executive Secretary, in collaboration with relevant partners, to facilitate capacity-building activities in accordance with decision XIII/23, especially for developing countries and countries with economies in transition, in particular the least developed countries and small island developing States, to enable all countries to participate in the development and application of scenarios;
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paragraph 4

4.Also requests the Executive Secretary, pursuant to decision XIII/22 on the framework for a communication strategy, to promote the use of scenarios as a communication tool for raising public awareness and to foster the participation and involvement of all stakeholders, in particular academia and the scientific community, and to scale up global support for biodiversity concerns, including by engaging celebrities as biodiversity ambassadors from all regions who would to act as biodiversity voices.
1.The 2050 Vision of the Strategic Plan remains relevant and should be considered in any follow-up to the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020. The 2050 Vision (“Living in harmony with nature” where “by 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”) contains elements that could be translated into a long-term goal for biodiversity and provide context for discussions on possible biodiversity targets for 2030 as part of the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.
2.Current trends, or “business-as-usual” scenarios, show continued loss of biodiversity, with major negative consequences for human well-being, including changes that may be irreversible. Urgent action on biodiversity therefore remains a pressing global societal issue.
3.Scenarios for future socioeconomic development demonstrate that there is a wide range of plausible futures with respect to population growth, education, urbanization, economic growth, technological development and approaches to international trade, among other factors, leading to varying levels of drivers of ecosystem and biodiversity change, such as climate change, overexploitation, pollution, invasive alien species and habitat loss, including land use change. This range of plausible futures provides space for developing policy measures to achieve the 2050 Vision and other global goals.
4.The biodiversity goals reflected in the 2050 Vision could be attained while also reaching broader socioeconomic objectives by deploying a combination of measures, including measures: 
(a) to increase the sustainability and productivity of agriculture, increasing and making better use of biodiversity within agricultural ecosystems to contribute to increases in sustainable production; 
(b) to reduce ecosystem degradation and fragmentation and maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services including through proactive spatial planning, the restoration of degraded lands and ecosystems and the strategic expansion of protected areas; 
(c) to reduce overexploitation of fisheries and other biological resources; 
(d) to control invasive alien species; 
(e) to adapt to and mitigate climate change; and 
(f) to reduce waste and excessive consumption.
5.These measures could be developed in various “policy mixes” depending on the needs and priorities of countries and stakeholders. For example, the combination of policy measures referred to in paragraph 4 above could vary with respect to the emphasis on changes in production and consumption, the degree of reliance on new technologies and international trade and the degree of global and local coordination such as illustrated by the three pathways identified in the fourth edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook.  Further visioning exercises, at multiple scales and with strong stakeholder engagement are needed to further elucidate options and promote action.
6.The pathways towards a sustainable future, while plausible, require transformational change, including changes in behaviour at the levels of producers and consumers, Governments and businesses. Further efforts will be needed to understand motivations and facilitate change. Societal and disruptive technological developments can lead to transitions that may contribute to, or counter, sustainability and the achievement of the three objectives of the Convention. Governments and international institutions can play a critical role in establishing an enabling environment to foster positive change. Further work is required to identify ways and means by which the Convention and the post-2020 global biodiversity framework can leverage such change.
7.A coherent approach is needed on biodiversity and climate change to ensure that impacts on biodiversity of climate change are reduced, that biodiversity and ecosystems can contribute solutions related to climate adaptation and mitigation, and that climate change adaptation and mitigation measures do not negatively impact biodiversity through changes in land management.
8.The 2050 Vision is consistent with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and other international goals. Progress towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development would help to address many drivers of biodiversity loss and also support biodiversity objectives by creating a favourable enabling environment. The integrated and indivisible nature of the Agenda implies that the achievement of all goals is necessary, and scenarios and models may inform the choice of policies and measures and their limitations, highlighting the need for policy coherence.
9.Scenarios and models may be useful in informing the development and implementation of the post-2020 global biodiversity framework. The development of the current Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 was informed by biodiversity scenarios that include those developed for the third edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook. There is also a potential for scenarios developed at appropriate scales to inform policymaking and implementation at the national level.
10.Scenario analyses tailored to regional, national or local circumstances provide information to feed into strategic planning for conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. They can therefore directly support the development of national biodiversity strategies and action plans. Furthermore, the inclusion of participatory approaches in scenario analysis is a valuable tool for building the capacity for decision-making that focuses on the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. It can do this by allowing stakeholders to recognize the relationships between biodiversity and other sectors, and how enhanced benefits can increase human well-being.
Conference of the Parties (COP)

Fourteenth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity
17 - 29 November, 2018
Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt



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Capacity-building, technical and scientific cooperation, technology transfer and the clearing-house mechanism