Welcome to the Discussion Forum on the development of IAS management tools and guidance.
Session 3 (which will run through the month of July 2019) is focused on the tools and guidance required in the management of IAS taking into consideration the impacts of Climate change, Land-use change and Natural disasters on biological invasions. 

I will be acting as the moderator for these discussions..

I have uploaded an underlying information document that serves as a basis for the topic under discussion.  This was compiled for the Secretariat of the CBD by members of the IUCN SSC- Invasive Species Specialist Group (ISSG) and the Climate Change Specialist Group (CCSG). The document discusses the impact of climate change, land-use change and natural disasters  on 1) the transportation and introduction of alien species, 2) on the survival and reproduction of alien species and 3) their dispersal across geographical barriers. Also, discussed are IAS management taking into consideration the three drivers and the challenges encountered.

Climate change, land-use changes and natural disasters are expected to alter invasions stages from transport to spread of alien species by facilitating alien populations or species to overcome barriers to invasions.
As done in the previous session, I would like to suggest the following topics to get the discussion started but feel free to suggest other threads as needed

1. What are the responses to climate change interactions (including natural disasters) at various stages of biological invasions including transportation, introduction establishment and spread
Examples include Horizon scanning exercises…
2. What are the responses to land-use change interactions at various stages of biological invasions including transportation, introduction establishment and spread
Examples include Surveillance for IAS in disturbed areas…

Looking forward to the discussions

Greetings all,
I received a question that the text posted and terms used e.g. Land-use change seem to be biased towards the terrestrial biome and if aquatic and marine biomes are included. YES for sure they are. I should have mentioned it. My apologies. Thank you Bella!!
Shyama

Dear All,

I am very pleased to see the explicit confirmation that the aquatic/marine world is equally within scope, and indeed the background document does capture the main points in that regard (especially related to climate change) quite well.

It may be of interest for this forum that the ICES/IOC/IMO Working Group on Ballast and Other Ship Vectors (WGBOSV) has a ToR "Investigate and evaluate climate change impacts on the establishment and spread of ship-mediated nonindigenous species, particularly with respect to the Arctic". Personally I am not able to provide any relevant input from this work, as IMO is not directly involved in this ToR (given that our work is entirely on prevention, as explained during Session 1), but perhaps any other members of this WG that participate in this Forum may be able to do so. (e.g. Bella?)

Best regards,
Teo

Message on behalf of Dr Bella Galil

Dear Teo, colleagues,
For lack of better methodology, ‘biophysical envelope’/’environmental niche’ (a set of physical and biological parameters that defines a potential and/or realized niche of a species) modelling has been widely used to predict potential species distributional changes resulting from CLIMATE CHANGE. However, these models are often sensitive to assumptions, uncertainties and plain lack of data – particularly so in the marine realm. The modeling of INVASIVE SPECIES distributional models face additional issues because the models  assume that the observed distributions are in equilibrium with their environment, when they are patently not, and avoid considerations of biotic interactions.

THUS WE ARE IN FOR SURPRISES!
A biophysical model carefully based on multiple parameters predicted that the area adjacent to the Suez Canal is not conducive to the establishment of the Indo-Pacific Lionfish, Pterois miles, whereas that the Bay of Marseilles (France) is (Johnston and Purkis, 2014). In fact, the entire Levant coastline is inundated by the Lionfish, whereas nary one arrived as yet in France.

Golani’s round herring, Etrumeus golanii, known from the upper shelf in the northern Red Sea, has entered the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal and spread to Algeria. The sea surface temperature in the northern Gulf of Aqaba ranges between 21.2-27.8°C whereas only 14.5-24.5°C off Algeria! Likewise, the burrowing goby Trypauchen vagina occurs in the Indo-west Pacific Ocean in shallow estuarine and coastal areas, such as the Persian Gulf where sea surface temperatures ranged between 20 and 32°C, but is abundant in Iskenderun Bay, Turkey, where the temperature is 17.5-28.5°C. Both fish were recorded in the Mediterranean at 200 m – far beyond their known native depth range (Galil et al. 2018). The wide-ranging invasion of Erythraean species of the Mediterranean, and their recently observed intrusion into the lower continental shelf and upper slope, revealed that thermal niche estimations assuming niche conservatism and based the species’ native environment may underestimate their true ’environmental niche’.

Much more comprehensive biotic data are urgently needed for ecologically meaningful (i.e. trustworthy) modelling and impact assessment processes, such as EICAT – especially in the marine realm.

Galil, B.S., Danovaro, R., Rothman, S.B.S., Gevili, R. and Goren, M., 2019. Invasive biota in the deep-sea Mediterranean: an emerging issue in marine conservation and management. Biological invasions, 21(2), 281-288.

Johnston, M.W. and Purkis, S.J., 2014. Are lionfish set for a Mediterranean invasion? Modelling explains why this is unlikely to occur. Marine pollution bulletin, 88(1-2), 138-147.

Hi everybody, so the temperature changes associated with climate change might not be as crucial as many models and riskassesments assume. As Dr. Galil describes species can survive and reproduce in higher or lower temperatures than their original environment – or adapt to different temperatures, as well as other new conditions. This means that our riskassesments may be just guesses. What is needed is an effective monitoring and eradication system, that can quickly react if an IAS species starts spreading. In Sweden we are establishing such a system for the species that are on the EU:s list. However, it would not be as easy to stop a new species that is not yet regulated either In EU level or nationally.

Hello everyone,
Following Inkeri Ahonen message I am wondering if the increase in CO2 concentration, which is an undisputed fact at the global scale, wouldn't have, actually, a stronger impact on the extent and the cover rate of invasive plant foci, rather than the elevation of the global temperature itself.
This may be particularly significant in arid and semiarid areas. For instance the relatively recent (25-30 years) proliferation of alien Prosopis (mesquite) in Africa's drylands could be partly explained by the CO2 concentration elevation, alongside with multiple other factors.
The CO2 concentration has increased from 315 ppm to 400 ppm between 1960 and 2015. Since this data is both undisputed (unlike the role of human activites in the current global warming) and is not likely to decrease in the foreseeable future, I would recommend to devote more attention to its impacts on the dynamics of alien invasive plants in semiarid and arid areas.
 
See Lu et al paper from 2016 https://www.nature.com/articles/srep20716

Regards,
JMDD

Thank you Jean-Marc for your insight and the interesting paper.

Hello everybody! In Sweden and surely also in other Nordic countries the climate change, the climate getting warmer, is one of the most important factors that contribute to spreading of new IAS-species. The cold winters with months of freezing temperatures combined with fairly short growing-season has been an effective a barrier to many plants and insects. However, winters are getting warmer with less frequent freezing temperatures, most in Southern Sweden of course, but also further north. Some IAS like Lysichiton americanus, Alopochen aegyptiacus eller Trachemys scripta that now survive in most southern parts of Sweden will maybe soon survive and be able to reproduce further north.

As global warming is difficult to stop (we all try, of course),so what remains would be not to have IAS-species in the country or around it, ready to spread north. EU:s legislation, the IAS-regulation, helps to control some species, but unfortunately there is a lot of potential IAS-species that are not regulated at all today and can be imported by trade or transports.

Thank you Inkeri Ahonen! Risk assessments is a crucial tool to prevent the introduction of harmful alien and potential invasive species especially ‘intentional introductions’. Factoring climate change scenarios both current and projected is a must when conducting these risk assessments depending on the status of alien/invasive species and its presence over the long term. For species that are already established it will be important to asses the range and extent to which the species may spread over the next few decades based on a changing climate, so the risks of their spread can be managed. In the case of species that have been accidentally introduced an assessment needs to be made of their survival under existing climatic conditions, in the case of probable establishment their potential spread needs to be assessed under different climate scenarios. For species that are being considered for intentional introduction with an assumption that there is a very low chance of invasive behavior under current climatic conditions, its behavior under different climate scenarios needs to be studies before any permission is granted.

Example from Canada
Government of Canada. (2008). Integrating Climate Change into Invasive Species Risk Assessment Risk Management Workshop Report. Ottawa, Canada: PRI Project Sustainable Development. Retrieved from http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2008/policyresearch/PH4-47-2008E.pdf

Example of some early work on modelling from Australia including case studies
Kriticos, D.J., Crossman, N.D., Ota, N. & Scott, J.K. (2010) Climate change and invasive plants in South Australia. Report for the South Australian Department of Water, Land and Biodiversity Conservation. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Canberra, Australia. 92pp
https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro%3AEP092039&dsid=DS3

Dear Shyama, you are right about the risk assesments. The Swedish Species Information Center, which is a part of Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, has made a risk assesment for a thousands of Alien species that  have been observed in Sweden or in nearby countries. They first made an assesment for about 5000 species using IUCN:s method ”EICAT”: Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa. For about 1000 species they continued with  ”GEIAA”: Generic Ecological Impact Assessment of Alien Species (Version 3.3), which is a method that Norway has used and developed. The effect of assumed climate change is included in the methodology.

The assesment is unfortunately today only in Swedish. However I paste here a link to the assesment, because the latin names and numerical values should give a picture of the results even those who are not  familiar with Swedesh language.  https://www.artdatabanken.se/globalassets/ew/subw/artd/2.-var-verksamhet/publikationer/29.-artdatabankens-risklista/rapport_klassifisering_av_frammande_arter2.pdf

Thank you Inkeri for the information on the risk assessments and link.

In the document that is presented as a basis for this discussion the following are some of the potential responses to climate change interactions through the various stages of introduction of alien and invasive species to spread
1. Using Horizon scans and modelling to prioritize alien species and pathways of introduction that represent a risk under climate change
2. Building biosecurity capacity and enacting pathway management action
3. Policies restricting the import or use of alien species that have the potential to become invasive in a changing climate
4. Incorporating priority alien species under climate change into Early detection and eradication measures
5. Eradication of species that are established but not currently widespread that may become invasive under climate projections
6. Prioritizing habitats and areas that may be susceptible to invasions due to climate change and eradication of alien and potentially invasive species in these areas

The use of Horizon scanning and modelling exercises, risk assessments factoring climate change are recognized as key tools in the management of IAS taking climate change into consideration.

Do members of this forum have other examples to share?

Thanks, Dear All,
The topic is of importance to Cameroon and West Africa as a whole. Very limited expert and institutions are involved in IAS in Cameroon. Most curricula don't have IAS as course so we can not understand from that perspective IAS management option from the various impact. Nevertheless, some isolated efforts exist. For example, Land Use change in the Littoral and Mangrove is driven by poverty with overexploitation of key woody species (Rhizophora racemosa)! I am in the belief, A nonnative species 'Nypa fruticans' of the Indo Pacific mangrove bloc that has invaded many mangrove sites forming monospecific stand here and there in Cameroon and Nigeria mangrove is in line with the topic proposed. Any advice in turns plant invasion! for better understanding comments herein please check attached paper!
ME

Dear Shyama, Invasive alien species (IAS) in Egypt is a very serious problem, like elsewhere. However, tremendous efforts have been done over the last few years. Some efforts include:
1. A national action plan was made in accordance with CBD guidelines and RAC/SPA of UNEP/MAP, and was validated in 2017.

2. A monitoring program was conducted to survey along the Suez Canal and the Egyptian Mediterranean Sea was made 4 times in two years. This program aims to establish a database of marine organisms, their environmental origins, their paths and methods of transport, their environmental and socio economic impacts as well as physiochemical characteristics of Suez Canal and Egyptian Mediterranean Sea. Genetic studies on molecular identification of some economic species were also made.
3. Egyptian list of IAS was performed in marine and freshwater habitats with GRIIS
4. Climate change impacts on the establishment and spread of non-indigenous species was recorded in different water bodies of Egypt
•A massive number of jellyfish species was recorded along the north coasts of the Egyptian Mediterranean coast in last three summers. The blooming were begin in the eastern coast and moving westward near western coast. This invasion resulting in negative impacts on fisheries, socio-economic activities, tourism and health risks.
. Some marine Fish species that used as reliable indicators of climate change recorded in the Sallum Marine Protected Area which mean a fish community composition shift because of climate change

Thank you Reda for this information from Egypt!

Hi All

IPBES https://www.ipbes.net/ are developing a Thematic assessment on Invasive species and I am one of the Coordinating Lead Authors on the chapter focused on IAS management. It would be good to have input from this forum on what the Chapter should cover so feedback welcome! The current annotated Chapter plan is as follows:

"Chapter will review the effectiveness of past and current programmes and tools for the global, national and local prevention and management of invasive alien species and their impacts. In particular, the chapter will consider and assess past experience with:
(a) Preventing the international and intranational spread of invasive alien species, including the role of trade and economic development;
(b) The precautionary approach in preventing and managing invasive alien species and the efficacy of risk assessment as a tool for managing such species;
(c) National quarantine measures and the adoption of biosecurity approaches;
(d) Managing complexity and intersectoral conflict, e.g., introduced species that are useful or harmful, depending on context and values;
(e) Uses of social media and citizen science for the detection, prevention and management of invasive alien species outbreaks;
(f) Eradicating or managing invasive alien species once they are present, including control options such as precision application of pesticides, baits and biological control, depleting populations of such species through use and exploitation and other practices such as “gene drive” technology. Methods for the ethical control of invasive animals will be documented;
(g) Capacities of different countries to manage invasive alien species, and barriers to the uptake of tools; and
(h) Managing invasive alien species in protected areas, including wetlands designated as significant under the Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, especially as Waterforwl Habitat, and biosphere reserves;
(i) Managing biological communities in which invasive alien species are present, considering co-existence, including direct and indirect interspecific interactions.

Thanks

Andy

Hi Shyama

The issue of the impacts of Climate change on IAS has been a hot topic of discussion in Australia for many years and this has come up again recently as we are in the middle of another significant drought in Eastern Australia which may or may not be as a result of climate change but is certainly covered under extreme events. The main recognition of interactions is that less diverse IAS dominated communities are much more vulnerable to biodiversity collapse and losses under drought than those that have been relatively uninvaded. The native Australian biota is very resilient to droughts (part of Australia's history) and survive better than the exotics the invasives pick up a huge advantage when conditions improve again for growth. Also there are some interesting interactions at the predator level in the food chain too. This raises interesting hypotheses around how to focus attention on IAS management in the context of droughts, particularly post drought. I attach a recent paper about to be published in PNAS that did a retrospective analysis of this for the Australian Federation drought at the end of the 19th and start of the 20th Century.

Andy

Hi Andy,
Interesting post and paper.
It seems to me the same hypothesis is relevant also for immediate post-fire context in Mediterranean-type (Csa) regions where the heat increases considerably the germination rate of invasive plants such as wattles (an others). While fire outbreaks are sometimes natural events in Csa regions, most of them are man induced and their increasing frequency or intensity (depending on the recent history and demography of the regions) are related to human activities. This may carry some similarities with the drought phenomenon you have mentioned considering the subsequent impacts on AIP proliferation.
Practically it means we would need guidelines for the control of AIP specifically in the aftermath of such events. Do you know if such guidelines have been published?
Best regards
Jean Marc

Hi Jean-Marc

The large biomass African grasses in Australia are also causing havoc in our Northern savannas because they change the fire regimes to more intense and more frequent turning forested savannas into mono-culture grass AIP savannas 

Andy

Thank you Andy for sharing this very interesting paper!

Good day,

The relationship between climate change and invasive has also been under consideration in South Africa linking it to the recent fire outbreak in Kynsyna (garden route). This is due to the replacement of natural fynbos vegetation with pine plantations in the southern Cape, and the subsequent invasion of surrounding land by invasive pine trees, significantly increased the severity of the 2017 Knysna wildfires.

The densities and size, the biomass from the invasive alien plants, served as rocket fuel for the fires.


It is also important that there are other delayed responses that may affect the on setting of invasive species such as the soil seed bank that needs to be addressed.

attached are some articles that are relevant to this discussion
Regards,
Ntaka

All

Australia and New Zealand has done a lot of historical work using process and climate based species distribution modelling to show a) how current IAS will increase or decrease in importance under climate change (within and between years) and b) where in the world are the likely worse sources of future invasive species both under current climate scenarios and under future climate scenarios and there are quite significant differences that are informing where we should refocus our biosecurity risk pathway work in the future.

Four papers attached. Tools for these types of analysis such as CLIMEX/DYMEX are pretty off the shelf now (https://www.hearne.software/Software/CLIMEX-DYMEX/Editions; https://events.csiro.au/Events/2017/January/31/CLIMEX-Version-4-Training;).  

Andy

Greetings all,

Thanks for your contribution Andy!

Here is another tool from Australia that supports climate adaptation planning and decision-making for regional and national resource management.
AdaptNRM <https://adaptnrm.csiro.au/> and the specific module on alimate change and weeds <https://adaptnrm.csiro.au/invasive-plants-climate-change/>

The tool provides a framework for planning weed management under a changing climate and includes a technical guide that can be downloaded- see below

From the webpage "Weeds are one of the main threats to biodiversity and agriculture in Australia and under climate change will become an increasing management challenge for natural resource management (NRM) regions. The information presented here will show how weeds and invasive plants are likely to respond to climate change as well as providing a framework for planning weed management under climate change".

A Weeds and Climate Change Technical Guide is available for download using this link <https://adaptnrm.csiro.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Adapt-NRM_M2_WeedsTechGuide_5.1_LR.pdf>. The module also features supporting materials and species-specific datasets through the CSIRO data access portal.

Here are some links to specific species
Centaurea solstitialis - AdaptNRM module 2: Invasive plant species and climate change
https://data.gov.au/dataset/ds-dap-csiro%3A10209/details?q=alien%20species
Triadica sebifera - AdaptNRM module 2: Invasive plant species and climate change
https://data.gov.au/dataset/ds-dap-csiro%3A8708/details?q=alien%20species

Regards
Shyama

Thanks Shyama.

I had forgotten about this work. So much has been done!

Andy

Indeed, climate change is gradually influencing human decisions to introduce, adopt and cultivate some non-native species as food sources. However, we must be cautious to identify and describe specific examples where climate change influenced such introductions, facilitated bioinvasion by such exotic species or increased invisibility of native ecosystems. From time immemorial, plant germplasms have been moved all over the world through transnational trades, European adventure ships, Christian missionaries (to Africa and Latin America), and Austronesian ocean travelers, among others. In fact, some evidence show natural sweepstakes route (ocean crossing) of some plant germplasms, for example, Cocos nucifera from Asia to East Africa. Today, most of the food we eat come from < 10 plants cultivated almost all over the world. These historical plant introductions and naturalization were not influenced by climate change.
A good example of species introduction influenced by climate change could include the introduction of Prosopis juliflora for green belt to check desertification in southern fringes of the Sahara Desert. Unfortunately, P. juliflora and other relatives have become invasive in Sub-Saharan Africa, East Africa, even up to Indian subcontinent. The introduction of the species was in itself a response to climate change, but human intervention, among other factors, may have played role in its invasion severity. Invasion by IAS in their introduced range exemplify niche evolution. This is well explained in the document shared by Shyama.
As noted by others, habitat destruction (or degradation) remains the greatest factor that favors IAS establishment and colonization. Most IAS (shrubs and herbs) cannot outcompete native plants, not in the Great Basin Desert, United States, and certainly not forest tree species in tropical regions of the world. IAS mostly affect native plants by reducing native plant recruitment through outcompeting seedlings or acting as fuel for increased fires that destroy native plant germplasms. However, when pristine ecological conditions are altered by human activities, it facilitates IAS colonization and spread. This explains why many IAS are abundant on road sides, open areas and secondary forests. Disturbance (natural or human) has been noted as a key mechanism for species coexistence and reduction in exclusive competition, in the intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH), and this can be applied to IAS coexistence with native species in many places.
To date, habitat loss (and/or habitat destruction) is still the greatest threat to biodiversity, which unfortunately, is not getting much attention, since climate change becomes the main theme. While climate change may play role in IAS proliferation, it is unclear what mechanisms may be involved, especially for C3 IAS plants. Climate change is predicted to favor range expansion for most xerophytes and C4 plants, whether IAS or native. I argue that anthropogenic activities, not climate change, will continue to drive IAS proliferation, colonization and severity in the future, via habitat degradation, deliberate cultivation of terrestrial exotics and increased global trade movement (as highlighted in accidental marine IAS introductions). Therefore, effective management of IAS must involve periodic field surveys and monitoring, and assessment of native ecosystems to identify risk areas for bioinvasion.
Assessment of native ecosystems may benefit from ecological niche models (ENM, aka, species distribution models, SDMs). While niche models have theoretical limitations (as noted by Dr. Galil), they still make accurate spatial predictions (not so much for temporal predictions, though). For example, niche model predictions have been shown to be statistically unstable when focal species presence points are <30. But, many of the priority species for conservation are rare or threatened species which have fewer occurrence points, and some studies have reported the discovery of new populations or species through spatial extrapolation using ENMs. So, niche models can still be applied to IAS, but knowledge of natural habitat will have to be ignored in the predictor variables, assuming niche evolution, which is common for most IAS. Using predictors in their invaded range can be used to fit models and identify ecosystems at risk of future invasion by the target IAS.
I agree with Dr. Moundingo’s comments on IAS in West Africa. In Nigeria, there are probably less than 20 researchers actively working on IAS, and there are no specific academic courses on it in tertiary institutions, though weed (and pest) management classes are more common. In most cases, people call IAS weeds. Only few notable IAS are mentioned publicly especially water hyacinth. Many people, including scientists still argue in favor of Chromolaena odorata, which is why some IAS are called “conflict species”. The knowledge to clearly distinguish between natives and naturalized exotics is fading, as one agricultural scientist argued with me some years back that cocoyams are native to Nigeria, when in fact, they were introduced historically. This conversation motivated me to conduct a study to identify all exotic plants in Nigeria, their routes of entry, current distribution in Nigeria and their ecological behavior. My findings show that many species were introduced deliberately or accidentally during colonial government rule in Nigeria (and perhaps, other African countries), but it is shocking to note that majority of new exotic plant entrants were done in the post-colonial era, mostly by plant enthusiasts and private botanic gardens who make money from selling those plants as ornamentals. It is unclear if the Nigerian Plant Quarantine Services is doing enough to check uncontrolled species introductions or perhaps, those plants were introduced illegally.
Another finding from my study also reveals that once an IAS breaks out in one country, it quickly spreads to others. For example, C. odorata came in to Nigeria in 1937 and has spread to the entire West African region within a few decades. The same is true for Nypha fruticans and Eichhornia fruticans. Therefore, IAS monitoring and control should not be limited to national efforts, but regional cooperation among countries. European Union is a great example of this.
In summary, systematic monitoring of IAS using existing tools, in addition to application of ENMs, and regional cooperation among neighboring countries are critical, while efforts should be channeled to check habitat destruction and land use change still rampant in the tropical regions. Furthermore, with respect to West Africa (and probably other like regions in the world), knowledge and appreciation of native biodiversity (in contrast to naturalized exotics), and public education of IAS and IAS identification need to increase. It is only after this that participatory citizen science can be beneficial to IAS monitoring.

Thank you Mr Borokini- for a good summary of many of the critical issues to with the intersection of climate change- land use change nd invasive species

Greetings all,

Here are two publications – one a framework (conservation of native species including management of threats -adapting to a changing climate) and the other a guide to the methods, resources and assistance available for dealing with invasive species in a changing climate

The Department of Conservation in New Zealand published a proposed framework for the conservation of terrestrial native biodiversity; it includes the management of threats – one of them being biological invasions

Adapting to a changing climate A proposed framework for the conservation of terrestrial native biodiversity in New Zealand
J.E. Christie Department of Conservation, PO Box 11089, Christchurch 8443, New Zealand Email: jchristie@doc.govt.nz
https://www.doc.govt.nz/Documents/science-and-technical/sap257.pdf

New Zealand’s terrestrial biodiversity will come under increasing pressure as a result of global climate change. Furthermore, climate change will likely exacerbate other existing threats, such as pests and human disturbance. This report describes a framework that will guide how the Department of Conservation (DOC) manages the impacts of climate change on terrestrial native biodiversity in New Zealand. This framework comprises five broad strategies: improve knowledge; develop adaptation methods and decision-support tools; incorporate climate change adaptation into existing management, research, planning and policy; improve current management to facilitate native resilience; and raise awareness outside DOC. Within these strategies, a total of 14 actions, covering a range of conservation practices, have been identified. Keywords: climate change, terrestrial biodiversity, freshwater biodiversity, impacts, threats, conservation management, adaptation

Bioinvasions in a Changing World: A Resource on Invasive Species-Climate Change Interactions for Conservation and Natural Resource Management
December 2014 Prepared for The Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force (ANSTF) and The National Invasive Species Council (NISC) By the Ad Hoc Working Group on Invasive Species and Climate Change
https://www.eli.org/sites/default/files/docs/bioinvasions_in_a_changing_world_dec_2014.pdf

This document is intended to be a guide to the methods, resources and assistance available for dealing effectively with invasive species and their interface with climate change at the site level, and to inform policy-making and planning at larger geographic scales.

Hi Shyama

here are a couple of similar reports from Australia

https://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/invasive-species/publications/climate-change-and-invasive-species

and the USA

https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/risk/recordisplay.cfm?deid=188305

Andy

Dear All
Very interesting session and a lot of learning from the previous posts.

Land use changes, disturbances (natural + anthropogenic) and climate changes are all facilitating the spread of invasive alien species in Nepal. We really do not have much information on invasive animal species, except a few reports on their occurrence. However, some important data has been generated on invasive plant species in recent years. Checklist of naturalized plant and animal species has been updated recently and is available through GRIIS database (http://www.griis.org/). Geo-referenced data of invasive plant species has been collected which has enabled us to prepare distribution map of invasive plant species and predict their suitable niche under current and future climate. Our recently published paper (attached) revealed that hotspot of plant invasion will increase in future and areas in high elevation will be suitable for plant invasions.

Distribution maps prepared from the survey revealed that some of the noxious invasive species (e.g. Mikania micrantha, Chromolaena odorata, Parthenium hysterophorus) are spreading rapidly into new locations. We identified several isolated satellite populations of these species in their invasion fronts, suggesting that they are spreading further into new areas. In absence of any management response, mountains and western part of Nepal are likely to witness invasion by additional species in very near future, even under current climatic condition. Unfortunately, these areas have been predicted to suitable for these invasive species under future climate.  

Protected areas and Ramsar sites, particularly located in the lowland and mid hill regions, have been also invaded heavily by invasive plants but these systems having high conservation values have not been studied adequately to inform management decision.

Infrastructure development such as the construction of roads leading to mountain areas have facilitated the upslope spread of the invasive plants. Urbanization and abandonment of agricultural land have also contributed to the spread of invasive plants in Nepal. In lowland, flooding is common during monsoon and this has also contributed to the local dispersal of invasive species.

In spite of some compelling evidences suggesting the rapid spread of invasive plants and their impacts on biodiversity and agriculture, there has been no national level risk assessment of invasive alien species following standardized protocol. Quarantine measures are virtually non-functional. There has been no practice of risk assessment before introduction of new species for plantation and agroforestry. Increasing importation of agriculture products has placed Nepal among the most threatened countries from invasive species to agriculture sector.

In summary, the problem of biological invasions have been increasing rapidly and their number as well as impact are likely to increase in future as well in Nepal. There is urgent need for national-wide risk assessment of invasive species for their spread and impacts on important ecosystems including protected areas and Ramsar sites. It is already high time to start managing invasive alien species with proper management plants.

A short intro… we all know that prevention, early detection and rapid response are thus crucial steps to avoid further introductions and consequent spread of invaders. This requires a stronger focus on prediction and identification of potential risks as well as promoting action (eradication, when possible) upon invaders before they become established. As a result of changing climate, land-use and socio-demographic conditions, additional (and perhaps more aggressive) alien species may spread across Europe over the next decades, threatening the sustainable supply of goods and services, food security, and hence economies.
Considering that effective eradication may be impractical or impossible when invaders are already established and actively spreading, policy and management strategies focused on prevention and early detection of invasions are urgently needed. In this context, new research approaches are required to further explore the factors that may enable future invasions from alien plant species that are already established or may become established in Europe in the near future in order to manage them. Europe’s invasion debt assumes a focus on the naturalization and expansion of species after their arrival and establishment, exploring the effects of invasion factors at various relevant scales. This approach is in line with two major ideas of the new EU Regulation 1143/2012 (European Union 2014) on Alien Invasive Species: coordinated action at the European level will be more effective than individual actions at the Member State level; and the best way to tackle invasions is to anticipate, prevent, early detect and monitor new invasions.
So, the application of predictive models in biodiversity science and conservation biology is considered a remarkable success story, with contributions at both the fundamental and the applied arenas. In recent years, the exciting new opportunities offered by satellite Earth observation are fostering a “remote sensing” revolution in ecological research and more particularly in biodiversity research and conservation. There have to been substantial application of remote sensing in the study and management of invasions, and there is wide potential for further contributions. However, applications of modelling tools and Earth observation data to anticipate future invasions and their potential impacts, as well as to contribute to their management are still underexplored. I think we can do more and better, and go further if we apply these tools to practical and political issues.

Hi all,

Another stimulating discussion and an enjoyable read. Some thoughts and perspectives from New Zealand:

Climate change has become increasingly important for the establishment of invasive species.  In conjunction with the increase of international trade, many pests have extended their global distribution as environmental conditions become more favourable for establishment. New Zealand has previously been in an enviable position of having its temperate climate prevent establishment of many tropical and sub-tropical insect pest species.  However, there is evidence that this may be changing.

For example in 2018, the mosquito, Culex sitiens was detected in the Kaipara harbour, Auckland through our National saltmarsh mosquito surveillance programme.  This tropical mosquito was detected at its most southern limit of its distribution (D. McGinn pers. comm) and is currently undergoing eradication in New Zealand.

There is evidence of increases in exotic ant nest establishment detected at more southern sites in New Zealand through the National Invasive Ant Surveillance programme in the last ten years where previously nests would more than likely die out due to un-favourable climatic conditions. All these nests were eradicated soon after detection.

Good biosecurity practices should consider the establishment potential of targeted alien species under climate change scenarios to ensure early detection through biosecurity surveillance.  Climate matching tools are important in aiding prioritisation around biosecurity risk of alien species.

New Zealand’s Crown Research Institutions have looked into developing and applying climate matching technology to assist invasive alien species in pest risk analysis. The idea is that this technology could provide analysts with on-line functionality to rapidly evaluate climatic matches for numerous hazard species in a more quantitative way.  Currently climate matching tools are being used in pest risk assessments and are routinely used in our Emerging Risk System where assessments are done. The outcome of using such tools will provide greater efficiency, objectivity, transparency & consistency in pest risk analysis.

See: Phillips, C B; Kean J M; Vink, C; Berry, J A (2018) Utility of the CLIMEX ‘match climates regional’ algorithm for pest risk analysis: an evaluation with non-native ants in New Zealand. Biological Invasions 20: 777–791.

Thank you to Dr Sheppard for highlighting the current IPBES assessment on IAS- New Zealand is excited to be involved in what we see as a very important study.

We note (e) in your list below on the use of social media and citizen science for the detection, prevention and management of IAS outbreaks. These are key tools for New Zealand as part of our biosecurity strategy.

We have a recent example: in 2017 myrtle rust arrived in New Zealand, which is a pathogen threatening a wide range of indigenous plant species and ecosystems.  Requests went out to the public via social media and other outlets to look for and report the disease.
See:  https://www.myrtlerust.org.nz/how-you-can-help/how-you-can-help-2/.  Public reporting of the disease was an essential part of the biosecurity response to this event.

This kind of public engagement is what we want to encourage through our “Biosecurity 2025” vision of having a “Biosecurity team of 4.7million” (4.7million is New Zealand’s population). You can read about Biosecurity 2025 here: https://www.thisisus.nz/

Greetings and thank you to all who particpated, contributed and followed this online forum- an excellant opportuity provided by the CBD,

This session has been informative and insightful!

I think the last three contributions wind up this session very well, providing experiences from three varied regions. Thank you Bharath, Joanne and Adam.

Bharath has highlighted the urgent need for national-wide risk assessment of invasive species for their spread and impacts on important ecosystems including protected areas and Ramsar sites and considering climate change, land-use change and extreme weather events.

The success of applying predictive modelling in biodiversity science is brought to our attention by Joanne and the use of technologies like Remote sensing. She also points out there is much to be done especially in the use of these tools

Concluding with the text from Adam's post

"Good biosecurity practices should consider the establishment potential of targeted alien species under climate change scenarios to ensure early detection through biosecurity surveillance.  Climate matching tools are important in aiding prioritisation around biosecurity risk of alien species.....The outcome of using such tools will provide greater efficiency, objectivity, transparency & consistency in pest risk analysis."

Thank you all once again!

Dear all,

Sorry for the late post. I would like to thank everybody for the interesting and useful posts.

In Brazil, we do not have experiences of incorporation of climate change on invasive alien species management. We are working on risk assessments models and the contributions you have sent will help us to consider climate change on invasive species management in the near future.

On the other hand, ecological research has addressed the interactions between climate change and invasive species. I would like to share a study about the effects of climate change on the native and non-native distribution of Colossoma macropomum (Please see attached file). This species is very important for local fisheries in the Amazon and has been introduced for fish farming in other rivers in Brazil, where it became invasive. The study found that, considering the forecast climate scenario, many climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of C. macropomum are located outside its native range. In addition, simulations of future geographic ranges revealed drastic range contraction in the native region. The results imply in concerns on C. macropomum conservation as well as on native fish conservation in the C. macropomum non-native range.

A significant number of the invasive species in Brazil is freshwater fish species, and most of them are native from somewhere inside the country. I hope we can built more study cases and advance in guidelines for native and alien fish species management.

Best regards,
Tatiani

Hello, everyone. Invasive alien species in China show a trend of increasing frequency of introduction, increasing number, increasing species, expanding scope of spread, increasing harm and increasing loss. The ministry of ecology and environment has launched the Technical guideline for assessment on environmental risk of alien species, issuing the <Technical guideline for assessment on environmental risk of alien species>(HJ 624 -- 2011). It provides a basis for assessing the environmental risk caused by alien invasive species. In order to monitor the impact of changes in climate factors on invasive alien species, China is cooperating with relevant departments to promote the establishment of a risk monitoring and early warning system and platform for invasive alien species in China, with a view to playing a supporting role in the management of invasive alien species.
Yaping Hu,Nanjing Institute of Environmental Science

Thank you Tatiana and Yaping Hu for sharing your experiences from Brazil and China