In the wake of the Kunming-Montréal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF), a robust global review of progress is pivotal for assessing the achievement of its goals and targets. At CoP-16 as part of the KM-GBF responsibility and transparency mechanism, countries will agree upon how the global review of collective progress in the implementation of the KM-GBF will be carried out. A credible and diverse knowledge base is an important condition for the global review to become effective to enhance learning & implementation as well as improving accountability & responsibility within the CBD. This side event will present first results from a research project that aims to contribute to the further development of global review mechanism through quantitative global scenario analysis of ambition and implementation of state and non-state commitments, as well as through policy dialogue on options to enhance the impact of the global review.

PBL will present a global analysis that can inform the global review.  This model based scenario analysis answers the question: “What does a fully implemented GBF deliver for biodiversity”? This scenario assumes a full implementation of the ecological, outcome-oriented KM-GBF Action Targets and evaluates what this delivers in terms of the realization of the KM-GBF 2050 Goals A ‘Protect and Restore’ and B ‘Prosper with Nature’. This scenario-analysis is complemented with climate mitigation scenarios that reflect the current climate ambitions of countries reflected in their NDCs as well as the well-below two degrees goal of the Paris Agreement. The GBF scenario will serve as reference for the next step in the project to compare with the potential impact of the collective ambition of countries as will be reflected in their NBSAPs and national targets as well as in non-state actor commitments. We can then show how far the implementation of the commitments of countries and non-state actors will get the world towards the realization of the GBF 2030 and 2050 goals. This can further inform the global review at upcoming COPs.

IDDRI will present a Policy Brief on how to construct global review processes supporting both ambition and implementation of the GBF. A well-designed global review process should identify the necessary transformations to achieve the collectively adopted goals and targets through various methods, including dialogues. As part of this process, it is crucial to ensure that these dialogues are purposeful and grounded in robust technical and scientific data. This will help create a review mechanism that not only takes root but also progressively enhances the ambition and implementation of national plans and strategies. The review should be forward-looking and also highlight enablers that facilitate the implementation at multiple levels. The review process should also offer concrete pathways for sectoral transformations and strategies to address identified gaps and needs, ensuring that available and forthcoming technical and scientific work informs these efforts. Recommendations will include methods to integrate these dialogues into the formal processes of the CBD or ways to support such processes effectively.

In the discussion, panelists will comment on the results of the analysis, options for developing a robust global review mechanism, the need for a multiple evidence-based approach and developing a globally representative analytical network in support of the global review.